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FortTom
3 August 2017, 05:56
I currently don't own a single suppressor, just for the fact that NFA stuff pisses me off with all of their hoops and so on, especially one as benign as a suppressor, as opposed to say owning a full auto SAW.

However, I've been paying attention, more and more to this new (to me) legislation that would make them off-the-shelf or even a simple background check.

A couple of things.

For those of you who are industry insiders, or are close to industry insiders, or may know high ranking "in the know" gun lobbyists does anyone have a feel for this passing?

I have a hunch, and I hope I'm wrong, but the left is going to go ape shit if this is brought up in the House and Senate. They are going to tell people, and non-shooters will believe the crap they see on T.V. , that a suppressor (they'll call them silencers) makes your weapon do what they do in James Bond movies and make a little phhhhhhtt, whisper quiet noise and everyone will become instant assassins. I've had many friends who are pro 2A but are non-enthusiasts non-shooters, discuss as much with me. Some are even amazed that they are legal now. So much for the public opinion side.

Is there any industry insider chatter about the bill's chances of passing?

Lastly, I think if it does pass, suppressors will fly off the shelves at laser speed, and except for price gougers, will be harder to find than hen's teeth.

Any thoughts about the legislation passing?

FT

Uffdaphil
3 August 2017, 06:38
I've been monitoring H.R. 3139 since it was introduced 5 weeks ago. It does not appear to be progressing. But then I'm not familiar with what is the normal speed of bills moving forward.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3139

Slippers
3 August 2017, 07:27
You should not be counting on anything suppressor related passing in the near future. If you want a suppressor, pay the $200 tax stamp and wait the 6-8 months. If suppressors are suddenly removed from the NFA while you're waiting, you (should) get a refund on the stamp and will be able to take possession immediately.

If nothing passes, you get the suppressor and can use it, and you're out $200. It's a small price to pay, in my opinion. Plus you don't have to worry about the suppressor you want not being available.

Aragorn
3 August 2017, 08:28
You should not be counting on anything suppressor related passing in the near future. If you want a suppressor, pay the $200 tax stamp and wait the 6-8 months. If suppressors are suddenly removed from the NFA while you're waiting, you (should) get a refund on the stamp and will be able to take possession immediately.

If nothing passes, you get the suppressor and can use it, and you're out $200. It's a small price to pay, in my opinion. Plus you don't have to worry about the suppressor you want not being available.

That is actually where I'm at. Ironically, my intention of getting a suppressor "some time" has jumped up to hopefully inside the next 3-5 months (or at least specifically before legislation passes) so I can not only be assured of getting one, but getting THE one I want, without having to wait potentially years for it.

gatordev
3 August 2017, 09:20
That is actually where I'm at. Ironically, my intention of getting a suppressor "some time" has jumped up to hopefully inside the next 3-5 months (or at least specifically before legislation passes) so I can not only be assured of getting one, but getting THE one I want, without having to wait potentially years for it.

Not to mention getting it at an absurdly low price right now.

Joelski
3 August 2017, 12:16
Yep. Better to load the pipe now, than risk never having that gratification. "Two Stampers" just add to the pride of ownership.

mustangfreek
4 August 2017, 00:20
Seen those vids last few days from silencer shop and another and first it was form 3's back in a day the last one I saw was 20 minutes..hopefully that's a sign of the future as after that wave last year hopefully stuff starts getting faster...

I eant a few cans/sbrs but other things take priority for where I'm at :(

alamo5000
4 August 2017, 08:02
I don't know the answer to the legislation question but I do know I just bought two cans from Silencer Shop all the way from a hotel room in Shanghai China.

Another Recce 5 and a Recce 7 on the way. I was going to get a .22 can but they were out of stock.

BoilerUp
4 August 2017, 19:19
I don't know the answer to the legislation question but I do know I just bought two cans from Silencer Shop all the way from a hotel room in Shanghai China.

Another Recce 5 and a Recce 7 on the way. I was going to get a .22 can but they were out of stock.

I was going to get a Recce 7 but instead spent a few extra bucks for a Paladin. Interestingly, I ordered my Paladin a month after I purchased my Recce 5 and Revolution 9 and the BATFE has cashed the check for the Paladin already but not the Recce 5 or the Revolution 9. Yep, I've got 3 in the queue, plus 2 Form 1s for SBR. To paraphrase my wife, I ripped the NFA band-aid off. 5 stamps and a few grand in a few weeks. I hope those wait times come down quickly now that they are hitting post 41F applications.

And I was thinking that Silencer Shop could actually be hurt by the HPA or similar. They've done a great job of investing in technology to streamline and simplify the NFA process that could potentially become worthless.

FortTom
4 August 2017, 21:05
You should not be counting on anything suppressor related passing in the near future. If you want a suppressor, pay the $200 tax stamp and wait the 6-8 months. If suppressors are suddenly removed from the NFA while you're waiting, you (should) get a refund on the stamp and will be able to take possession immediately.

If nothing passes, you get the suppressor and can use it, and you're out $200. It's a small price to pay, in my opinion. Plus you don't have to worry about the suppressor you want not being available.

It could be bad communication skills on my part, but I think you missed the point of the first couple of sentences in my post. I could easily just go the NFA route, could have done it a long time ago and had a little family of suppressors. That wasn't the point. The point was I have a disdain for NFA stuff because they put me through all of that stamp/wait crap to get one, something that makes my weapon no more lethal than before. Then if you decide you don't want your SBR/Suppressed weapon, it's a real joy getting rid of one. (sarcasm intended). I've been through that cycle before, and there's nothing I want enough than to have to go through it again.

My question was: does anyone know if anyone know through whatever "chatter" that may be going through the grapevine, that the bill will pass. One example might be that you know one or more of the manufacture's are ramping up production, or your congressman gave you a smile and a wink, when asked about it.

Thanks,
FT[:D]

Joelski
4 August 2017, 22:08
I've spoken to my area HR and Senator. Both support the HPA, neither Indicated it'll happen soon, if at all. Both bills could die at the end of the session, or be pushed to late 2018 as vote fodder to keep Republicans in office. The HPA has a better chance as it retains background checks and is part of an omnibus outdoors recreation/conservation bill.

alamo5000
5 August 2017, 01:07
And I was thinking that Silencer Shop could actually be hurt by the HPA or similar. They've done a great job of investing in technology to streamline and simplify the NFA process that could potentially become worthless.

Interesting point.

If HPA or even the SHUSH Act passes it will definitely have an impact on the industry. I will put my business man cap on now...

Suppressor manufacturers at least in theory could (under the SHUSH Act) have an online store and sell silencers out of the garage on Amazon.

Under the HPA there would still be other restrictions that would influence business practices.

I have a friend who owns a business and they make high end quality stuff. For a while they tried to do direct sales via the internet. Their products have zero restrictions for the most part.

Within about a couple of years my friend said 'screw this' and voluntarily opted for a dealership network. All the calls, repair work, warranty, feedback, and even nice letters got so overwhelming that he was going to have to hire a ton of people just to answer all the emails he got. In a relatively short time he went from devoting 90% of his time to designing and making cool stuff to being a paper pusher with not enough time to do anything else.

If they completely did away with the NFA all together I don't think SS would really go anywhere. They would just assume a different role. I think if that were to ever happen they would become a wholesale distributor. They could buy say 50,000 of these and 50,000 of those and then the manufacturers can focus (and plan) for what they actually do.

If silencers ever become a retail item they would just change roles a bit. If they never had to do another form 4 in their lives I don't think they would be eliminated at all. Far from it.

alamo5000
5 August 2017, 02:02
I was going to get a Recce 7 but instead spent a few extra bucks for a Paladin. Interestingly, I ordered my Paladin a month after I purchased my Recce 5 and Revolution 9 and the BATFE has cashed the check for the Paladin already but not the Recce 5 or the Revolution 9. Yep, I've got 3 in the queue, plus 2 Form 1s for SBR. To paraphrase my wife, I ripped the NFA band-aid off. 5 stamps and a few grand in a few weeks. I hope those wait times come down quickly now that they are hitting post 41F applications.

And I was thinking that Silencer Shop could actually be hurt by the HPA or similar. They've done a great job of investing in technology to streamline and simplify the NFA process that could potentially become worthless.

Here is another thing I don't get. The last I checked 41F is not nor has ever been a law. The ATF is given broad leeway to interpret things however they see fit. IE sort of like judges making law from the bench instead of it going through the proper procedures.

The Attorney General (in this case Lorretta Lynch) signed the rule into place all by herself as saying 'this is how the Federal Government will treat this specific situation'.

It's a RULE not a LAW. Hence if Jeff Sessions decided to he can re-write those rules any way he sees fit and no one can do anything to stop him. Naturally if he did this there would be hundreds of liberal judges trying to stop him for exercising his discretion when his immediate predecessor used the exact same authority.

Jeff Sessions can undo 41F all by himself and he doesn't even need authorization of the President or Congress. He can put it out there for public comment just like they did with 41P etc etc and then sign the rule change and that would be it.

FortTom
5 August 2017, 02:13
I've spoken to my area HR and Senator. Both support the HPA, neither Indicated it'll happen soon, if at all. Both bills could die at the end of the session, or be pushed to late 2018 as vote fodder to keep Republicans in office. The HPA has a better chance as it retains background checks and is part of an omnibus outdoors recreation/conservation bill.

I know that my HR and Senator support it too. I'm pretty sure if they can shake that demon "reputation" that so called "silencers" have with the non-shooting public, that the bill could easily get through the House, but the Senate has a very narrow majority, and as far as Democrats are considered the answer is NO to everything firearm related. I'm doubting if the measure could get on the POTUS's desk. I've been horribly wrong before, trying to second guess these things, and how they move at a snail's pace, thus my reason for asking.

I also don't see why it couldn't be the HPA version with a background check. If I go to the store and buy a Glock, I could kill someone with it. Very unlikely I could kill someone with a suppressor.;)

FT

UWone77
5 August 2017, 02:16
It could be bad communication skills on my part, but I think you missed the point of the first couple of sentences in my post. I could easily just go the NFA route, could have done it a long time ago and had a little family of suppressors. That wasn't the point. The point was I have a disdain for NFA stuff because they put me through all of that stamp/wait crap to get one, something that makes my weapon no more lethal than before. Then if you decide you don't want your SBR/Suppressed weapon, it's a real joy getting rid of one. (sarcasm intended). I've been through that cycle before, and there's nothing I want enough than to have to go through it again.

My question was: does anyone know if anyone know through whatever "chatter" that may be going through the grapevine, that the bill will pass. One example might be that you know one or more of the manufacture's are ramping up production, or your congressman gave you a smile and a wink, when asked about it.

Thanks,
FT[:D]

HPA isn't going anywhere for now. Depending on how many seats we gain or lose, perhaps 2018.

The funny thing is, since it was reintroduced for 2017 in Jan, had you or anyone else applied for a stamp at the same time as the bill was reintroduced, you'd be looking at another month or two before you'd have your suppressor in hand.

Waiting sucks yes, but I submit my paperwork and forget about it. A few times a year, I'll get 3-5 items approved at the same time and it's like Christmas. It's all in how you look at things.

alamo5000
5 August 2017, 02:24
I can also add that quite a while back I wrote to my Congressman about the HPA. He's the Chairman of the Ways and Means committee. I posted the letter I received back here on the forum.

(I have since removed the letter)

Long story short he was oblivious and non committal despite coming from one of the most conservative districts in the nation.

In other words, don't hold your breath. These jackasses can't even repeal Obamacare or do anything regarding our dumbass tax code (BOTH of which they promised straight on for 7+ years)....