The Current AR15 Market ... Bottoming Out?

[UWone77]

Just some observations from the past week, post election:

Private Sellers on local boards, FB Groups, various boards are trying to unload cases of PMags.

I noticed that even retailers are deeply discounting. Midway has D60 Mags for 7% over cost.

Lots of cheap Uppers and Lowers also being unloaded into the secondary market.

The election was a huge win for us, now and for a generation to protect our gun rights, but this I think will be in the short term very brutal for some retailers. The market has been saturated for awhile, I know the secondary market has been super soft and lots of quality parts have been had at deep discounts. It's a buyers market. Then people stocked up for the post election shortage/panic, which of course never materialized.

I think Black Friday is going to be a blood bath for the bottom line and some people are going to go out of business.

[rxer311]

I think you may be right. Quality outfits like Rainier Arms, BCM, Primary Arms, etc will probably make it through, but a lot of the fly by night operations like Super Special Delta Midnight Black Ops Tactical will probably not survive.

[GOST]

Probably true, local shops have VP9's for $499.

[alamo5000]

I agree with you 110% on this.

I am seeing some manufacturers go to a 'run' system... make a run of whatever wigit they make... let that sell out.... then make a run of something else... let that sell out.... so they aren't sitting on a bunch of stock that they can't move.

I was thinking about this subject the other day actually, although I have little to no knowledge of the specifics of the gun industry.

For your generic AR parts I think it's a good time to stock up on stuff because before long they will start limiting production on things. If they do however pass the Hearing Protection Act (I know, I know) then that segment is about to blow up if that ever happened.

[alamo5000]

I think you may be right. Quality outfits like Rainier Arms, BCM, Primary Arms, etc will probably make it through, but a lot of the fly by night operations like Super Special Delta Midnight Black Ops Tactical will probably not survive.

I think the ones that focus on generic stuff are going to fall on hard times. The ones that focus on quality, good marketing, customer relations, reputation, good roll marks, aesthetics, etc etc will do ok.

[UWone77]

People won't stay in business long making less than 20% margin, which I see a lot of lately online.

Arfcom is gutted with magazines, uppers, and other AR parts for pennies on the dollar.

Personally, I'm still buying various magazines for certain firearms. State Level magazine restrictions are always on the table for some of us.

[Axlnut]

A couple of points really nailed it.

The manufacturing runs - absolutely. Most places already do this, but they predicate the next run based on reaching a level above 0. That will change, and so will their contract facilities like machine shops. Margins will be gained back by paying less but waiting longer.

The specialty and quality parts houses weathering the storm better, also agree. This bodes well for me with my contract design work and licensed parts. Now is not the time to make another lower or upper just like the rest.

Let me put it bluntly.. this is going to be a Barbie market. It's time to drive focus to the next "upgrade" parts for the existing guns in consumer hands. Many of these parts will be upgrades of more of a cosmetic nature than functional, although the market will likely delude itself claiming how the new safety, charging handle, muzzle brake, etc, are "better." That's fine, but generally it's marketing. Want to survive? Just make it cooler and don't sacrifice functionality.

[fledge]

I hate to see the market bottom out. I also know competition drives innovation. The subgun, AR308, AR Large Bore, and AK are getting a lot more attention. I hope we see more development in those areas.

Will ammo prices fall too?

Wish I could pick up 30rd mags. :(

[UWone77]

About a month prior to the election, I picked this complete ADM Rifle up for about $750 ish. The UIC Mod 2's are usually around $1800 new. Almost like driving a new car off the lot and trading it in right after.

2088

[Axlnut]

About a month prior to the election, I picked this complete ADM Rifle up for about $750 ish. The UIC Mod 2's are usually around $1800 new. Almost like driving a new car off the lot and trading it in right after.

2088

Very nice.

Look at all those accessories ;-)

Fledge, AKs and subguns are going to explode in general, if import bans are lifted, and the HPA passed... Those markets will go nuts, along with their aftermarkets.

[Stickman]

Very nice.

Look at all those accessories ;-)

Fledge, AKs and subguns are going to explode in general, if import bans are lifted, and the HPA passed... Those markets will go nuts, along with their aftermarkets.

I think people are jumping the gun on how fast that legislation is going to happen.

[UWone77]

I think people are jumping the gun on how fast that legislation is going to happen.

If at all. Not sure where people are getting this optimism, maybe it's just me.

But the 1986 Hughes Amendment was brought to you under the Reagan Presidency, along with the 1989 Import Ban from Bush.

I realize people want to party like it's 1933, but I'm going to remain realistic until I see differently.

[Axlnut]

Stick you may be right.

I feel it like it's a big if, but an if we have some control over. We need to bend ears like we do when things are not going our way.

We may have 4-8 years of not having to fight to hold ground, if that is the case we need to fight to gain it.

[Axlnut]

If at all. Not sure where people are getting this optimism, maybe it's just me.

But the 1986 Hughes Amendment was brought to you under the Reagan Presidency, along with the 1989 Import Ban from Bush.

I realize people want to party like it's 1933, but I'm going to remain realistic until I see differently.

The internet changes everything. From the AWB expiration until now we've had more success stopping new bans, regulations, etc. At least on a federal scale.

[UWone77]

The internet changes everything. From the AWB expiration until now we've had more success stopping new bans, regulations, etc. At least on a federal scale.

Don't get me wrong, I want them to repeal it all!

But I'm just trying to be realistic. I know I've probably just been beaten down from years of just trying to maintain our current rights, but even thought the Republicans will control the Presidency, House, and Senate, Importation Bans will not be high on their list of things to do. It will also not be shed in a favorable light in the mainstream media and on social media. Republican legislators maybe PRO 2A, but will they actually care about Importation Bans? Safe Hearing Acts? I can just see those used against them during a reelection and suddenly we don't control the House or Senate anymore. This is exactly what happened to the Democrats in 2009. They had almost 2 years of Liberal Agendas pushed through with Obama, and they were voted out.

[JGifford]

Just before the election (a week) I was buying SAND PMAG's for $10.70 a mag. Gold Dot .223 for 40 cents a round. If it gets any cheaper than that post election, I'll be shocked.

[DeviantLogic]

Will ammo prices fall too?

Given time, probably. I think the main thing is we're not going to see panic buying and the price hikes associated with it. Manufacturers have been churning out as much as they can for a while trying to keep up with demand. It's going to take some time to get caught up, but once they do (assuming no more major world events for a while), we should see prices start to subside. Not going to happen overnight though.

[Joelski]

It seems lately that all marketing does is raise the MSRP 40% above the competition and offer some "lifestyle" merch to send sales through the roof.

This is common practice, especially among the makers whose name is creatively spelled, or an unpronouncable collection of consonants. [emoji374]

[mustangfreek]

I agree the gun market is super flooded right now, and seeing the same very good prices on just about everything, and Black Friday/Xmas sales will probably be like said a fire sale for some places just to stay afloat.

Everyone was thinking the worst and been watching everyone for years stock up on all kinds of ar parts and tons of mags just in hope to flip them as everyone was thinking killary was probably gonna take control..
Now all of them are not happy as there stuck and no fire sale as of now, but who knows for how long

I remember after the last 2 elections literally next day ammo,lowers, uppers, bcgs, mags of all kinds were sold out and selling for crazy prices on the private market..Nothing like this election total opposite people who stocked up just trying to get there money back.

Time will only tell

[GOST]

You guys think this could make WEVO lowers cheaper?[BD]

[titanse05]

About a month prior to the election, I picked this complete ADM Rifle up for about $750 ish. The UIC Mod 2's are usually around $1800 new. Almost like driving a new car off the lot and trading it in right after.

2088Wow! Who did you steal that from? LOL

[Jerry R]

Excellent points all around. Forecasting is a real issue for not only manufacturers, but the retailers as well. This time both ends of the chain geared up for an event that was forecast and didn't happen. Now wholesalers aren't getting orders from retailers, and manufacturers aren't getting orders from distributors/wholesalers. Companies making stuff have to continue to manufacture, or lay people off. Manufacturing to forecast, manufacturing to inventory, manufacturing to order are their choices, and something no one (well almost no one) predicted has happened. I think the market will be in a state of flux for some time until the buying forecast becomes stable. Fortunately, this time, the end user is not the one being fluxed.

Watch for sales on things you need, get them now. Think about things you want, and plan your budget for them.

I don't want to see anyone go out of business, but I think hard times are coming for some in the industry, and closures will either stabilize street prices, or drive them slightly higher as inventories dry and competition disappears.

As others have stated, new legislation will be slow as the new Executive Branch and Legislative Branch establishes their working relationship. Getting small gains tacked onto larger legislation may provide some benefits for us, but unlikely. I believe we are probably 18 months (at least) away from seeing any specific legislation designed solely for the benefit of the firearms industry and community.

[Joelski]

You guys think this could make WEVO lowers cheaper?[BD]
God can't even do some things!

[:D]

[VIPER 237]

Jerry I think you are right, it'll be some time before we see pro gun legislation go through. I personally feel the HPA may get passed sooner than later, but the rest will be closer to the 18 month mark or later. I think the dems got slapped hard and they will regroup and focus hard on the next election wave and I personally feel they will take the senate and have a real chance at the house.

[UWone77]

Wow! Who did you steal that from? LOL

This was a local deal. I wasn't in the market, but after some negotiating, I had to do it.

[fledge]

This was a local deal. I wasn't in the market, but after some negotiating, I had to do it.

And ADM gave you sweet hookups in refurbishing it too! Did they charge you for that?

[UWone77]

And ADM gave you sweet hookups in refurbishing it too! Did they charge you for that?

They didn't charge me. They told me they knew I took pictures with it, and wanted the lower to look its best when it showed up on social media. It was very generous of them. It wasn't a warranty issue, but they took care of it anyway.

[JGifford]

Smart companies do not operate in debt.
Less smart companies who bought up a bunch of ammo/mags/AR's/parts are going to be wondering what to do now that Hillary has lost, and they are floating a lot more inventory on credit than is typical for them. The answer will become painfully obvious when noone just rushes out to buy a bunch of stuff, because noone is scared of it being banned anymore. "It can wait..." is the customer's line, now, and no amount of fear-mongering is going to work on the customer as strongly as Hillary looming worked on the retailer.

Inevitably, some places will do very impressive Cyber Monday's and Christmas deals, I am willing to bet, to help out the bleeding company credit accounts.

[JGifford]

They didn't charge me. They told me they knew I took pictures with it, and wanted the lower to look its best when it showed up on social media. It was very generous of them. It wasn't a warranty issue, but they took care of it anyway.

I do not know ADM, but I know others in the industry who do, and I have never heard a bad word about them from the inside out. They are very good people who actually care, from everything I've ever heard. I am not at all surprised about how they treated you, and think that even without your social footprint you would have been very well taken care of.

[UWone77]

I do not know ADM, but I know others in the industry who do, and I have never heard a bad word about them from the inside out. They are very good people who actually care, from everything I've ever heard. I am not at all surprised about how they treated you, and think that even without your social footprint you would have been very well taken care of.

No doubt.

I even told them I wasn't the original owner, and it wasn't a defect with their actual product. They didn't care, and didn't even charge me to ship it back. Was already a big fan of ADM before this.

[alamo5000]

I personally feel they will take the senate and have a real chance at the house.

The only Republicans up for election in the Senate are from Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. If you think Texas, Utah, and Wyoming are in play for Democrats you have another thing coming. There is no way in hell Ted Cruz is going to lose in Texas, and no way in hell Utah is going to elect a Democrat to anything. The last time Mississippi elected a Democrat Senator was in 1982. I guess Nevada and Nebraska might be in play for a flip, and not to mention they have to defend something like 25 other seats, several of which are in states that went solidly for Trump.

I guess anything is possible but it's not very probable. It would take a major league screw up to lose the Senate.

The House is always up for grabs.

[alamo5000]

Smart companies do not operate in debt.
Less smart companies who bought up a bunch of ammo/mags/AR's/parts are going to be wondering what to do now that Hillary has lost, and they are floating a lot more inventory on credit than is typical for them. The answer will become painfully obvious when noone just rushes out to buy a bunch of stuff, because noone is scared of it being banned anymore. "It can wait..." is the customer's line, now, and no amount of fear-mongering is going to work on the customer as strongly as Hillary looming worked on the retailer.

Inevitably, some places will do very impressive Cyber Monday's and Christmas deals, I am willing to bet, to help out the bleeding company credit accounts.

I wouldn't be surprised if the actual production of a lot of things (such as magazines etc) slows down for just this very reason. The manufacturers have no interest in seeing their sales outlets go out of business. It would be dumb to flood an already flooded market with more product. It will at least give a lot of people a chance to recoup the money they have sunk into inventory.

[fledge]

No doubt.

I even told them I wasn't the original owner, and it wasn't a defect with their actual product. They didn't care, and didn't even charge me to ship it back. Was already a big fan of ADM before this.

This is great to hear. I need to give them a closer look.

In other news, my local LGS says the day after the election was still very busy. And then it's been dead ever since. With hunting season nearly over, even that motivation to buy is gone.

[UWone77]

This is great to hear. I need to give them a closer look.

In other news, my local LGS says the day after the election was still very busy. And then it's been dead ever since. With hunting season nearly over, even that motivation to buy is gone.

I was at Rainier on election day. It was basically standing room only, and phones ringing off the hook.

Dropped in today to pick up my SMOS set, and there was no one in the store, a few phone calls, but basically dead.

[fledge]

Maybe that's why customer service finally replied my email today!

[BoilerUp]

Plus savvy shoppers shouldn't be buying anything right now since the Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals are just days away. I view the election results as an opportunity to shift to buying things that don't have serial numbers and were never likely to be restricted anyway, e.g., optics and reloading equipment.

[GOST]

No, savvy shoppers should be saving their money to buy multiple WEVO lowers.[:D]

[fledge]

No, savvy shoppers should be saving their money to buy multiple WEVO lowers.[:D]

With paint. :oP

[Tyrannosaur]

I've been hoping for a deal on a vortex razor 1-6, hope black Friday I can find a good deal. Finally going to admit t defeat, my astigmatism is so bad red dots aren't really a viable option... time for variable optics. Father time scores a point.
Plus I'd like a Geissele CH

[UWone77]

Things that'll never be banned, like accessories will always be secondary purchases for me. I've halted a lot of my buying this year, more so probably next year. I'll buy a couple of things here and there like magazines for guns I plan to own in the future, or increase my supply on ones that I don't have as many of.

Stay on top of things guys, I know I don't have to tell this crowd that. If Trump is a 1 term president, which wouldn't surprise me... don't get caught in 2020 trying to buy things last minute as you got lazy and complacent the next 4.

[fledge]

Stay on top of things guys, I know I don't have to tell this crowd that. If Trump is a 1 term president, which wouldn't surprise me... don't get caught in 2020 trying to buy things last minute as you got lazy and complacent the next 4.

Truth. This election is not all sunshine and roses. The Democrats have 50 years of entrenched insurgence in place with more money/power than we can imagine to uproot democracy.

The NRA's video today outline what they are pushing for. One of them is legislation that requires states follow federal laws on guns. No more state and municipal level overreach. If that happens, we'll see a lot of new buying on the market.

[Axlnut]

With paint. :oP

Paint all the things indeed.

I think we are showing a bit of doom and gloom in general attitudes - this is a pretty epic time, maybe we can turn the dial to "restrained optimism"

I know we don't want to all be convinced we're getting Turbo Man for Christmas only to have to hide our disappointment when we get Dementor instead.. but still.

Happy times. Some businesses will fail - but that's a market correction, it's just life. I'd rather a few years of comfort and enhancing our rights than business booming off of fear.

[Eric]

Truth. This election is not all sunshine and roses. The Democrats have 50 years of entrenched insurgence in place with more money/power than we can imagine to uproot democracy.

The NRA's video today outline what they are pushing for. One of them is legislation that requires states follow federal laws on guns. No more state and municipal level overreach. If that happens, we'll see a lot of new buying on the market.
I believe that's unlikely to gain much traction, since part of the Republican push is supposedly less federal government oversight and more power to the individual states, but who knows.

Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk

[SINNER]

The AR market needs a few sharks in the gene pool. Far too much garbage has survived by panic buys and limited product from reputable companies.

[fledge]

I believe that's unlikely to gain much traction, since part of the Republican push is supposedly less federal government oversight and more power to the individual states, but who knows.

Republicanism is not against enforcing the Constitution. This is a strong value. The "less federal gov" line is shorthand for overreach into the private lawful lives of people. Enforcing the Constitution on the state level however is to stop overreach, rather than making the fed bigger. This is the proper accountability mechanism of the Constitution. The same is true of state gov over municipalities.

But as you said, who knows. How many republicans have a stomach to stop bullies?

[Eric]

Republicanism is not against enforcing the Constitution. This is a strong value. The "less federal gov" line is shorthand for overreach into the private lawful lives of people. Enforcing the Constitution on the state level however is to stop overreach, rather than making the fed bigger. This is the proper accountability mechanism of the Constitution. The same is true of state gov over municipalities.

But as you said, who knows. How many republicans have a stomach to stop bullies? Well said. Much of the problem would appear to be the RINO types who need to be reminded what the Constitution is.