Observations on the Points of Impact of Statistically Significant Shot-Group Sizes

[Molon]

Observations on the Points of Impact of
Statistically Significant Shot-Group Sizes


The Set-up

For this ballistic exercise I used a semi-automatic AR-15 with a 20” stainless steel Lothar-Walther barrel. This barrel has a 223 Wylde chamber with a 1:8” twist rate. This Lothar-Walther barreled AR-15 has produced 10-shot groups with extreme spreads measuring in the “sixes” (0.6xx inches) when fired from the bench at a distance of 100 yards using match-grade hand-loads. Prior to the beginning of this exercise, this barrel had approximately 2,040 rounds fired through it.














The ammunition used for this exercise was factory loaded Black Hills red-box 223 Remington ammunition seated with the 69 grain Sierra MatchKing with a cannelure. Since I had been testing other ammunition with the Lothar-Walther barreled AR-15 prior to the beginning of this exercise, as well as throughout this exercise, I fired three “seasoning rounds” of the Black Hills 69 grain Sierra MatchKing ammunition to condition the bore of the Lothar-Walther barrel with the powder used in this factory load. This process was repeated immediately prior to shooting each of the groups evaluated for this exercise.















All of the shooting for this ballistic exercise was conducted from a concrete bench-rest at a distance of 100 yards (confirmed with a laser rangefinder.) The Lothar-Walther barrel used in this exercise was free-floated in a LaRue Tactical railed free-float handguard. The free-float handguard of the AR-15 rested in a Sinclair Windage Benchrest (with the aid of a Sinclair forend bench-rest adaptor) while the stock of the rifle rested in a Protektor bunny-ear rear bag. Sighting was accomplished via a Leupold VARI-X III set at 25X magnification and adjusted to be parallax-free at 100 yards. A mirage shield was attached to the objective-bell of the scope. Wind conditions on the shooting range were continuously monitored using a Wind Probe. The set-up was very similar to that pictured below.












The Wind Probe.








The Groups


No changes were made to the elevation or windage settings on the scope throughout the entire course of this exercise and the exact same point of aim was used when shooting each group. After firing the three “seasoning rounds” of the Black Hills 69 grain Sierra MatchKing ammunition, I settled-in and fired a 20-round group of the aforementioned ammunition. The group is pictured below. The center of the 20-round shot-group is located in the lower-right quadrant of the two inch circle on the target. After shooting this group, I continued testing other ammunition from the same Lothar-Walther barreled AR-15.










A little later that day, I fired a second 20-shot group of the Black Hills 69 grain Sierra MatchKing ammunition from the Lothar-Walther barreled AR-15. The second group is pictured below.









As you can see, the center of the second 20-shot group showed no significant shift whatsoever in its location on the target as compared to the first 20-shot group. The next image shows the first and second 20-shot groups over-layed on each other using Adobe Photoshop with the blending opacity set at 50%; further illustrating that the centers of the two 20-shot groups showed no significant shift in their locations on the targets compared to each other.










On an additional trip to the shooting range, I repeated this entire ballistic exercise just as described above. The findings were the same; the centers of two 20-shot groups fired from the Lothar-Walther barreled AR-15 using the same lot of Black Hills 69 grain Sierra MatchKing ammunition showed no significant shift in their locations on the targets compared to each other. Nor did the centers of these third and fourth 20-shot groups show any significant shift in their locations on the targets as compared to the first and second 20-shot groups fired in the previous ballistic exercise.

The graphic below shows all four of the 20-shot groups over-layed on each other (forming an 80-shot composite group) illustrating that the centers of all four of the 20-shot groups showed no significant shift in their locations on the targets compared to each other. Of those 80 shots in the composite group, 95% of them are contained in a covering-circle that has a diameter of 0.97 MOA. All of the 80 shots in the composite group are contained in an area-of-dispersion (bounding rectangle) that measures 1.07 MOA wide by 1.08 MOA high.









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[din]

Thank you, this is awesome.

[DutyUse]

Cool test molon, excllent writeup. Question for you, in the many tests you've conducted, have you noticed a large shift in POI from barrel heat? Is it a predictable change as the barrel heats up?

[Molon]

Question for you, in the many tests you've conducted, have you noticed a large shift in POI from barrel heat?

No, but all of my accuracy/precision testing is done at a slow, steady rate of fire.

[mustangfreek]

Awesome info.i dig this kind of stuff and have all kinds of ideas and tests id like to sit down and do, but not enough time in the day for me..

Always enjoy reading your posts. thanx for taking the time to do this and post..!!

[Molon]

. . . have all kinds of ideas and tests id like to sit down and do, but not enough time in the day for me..

You and me both, brother.