The Current AR15 Market ... Bottoming Out?

[UWone77]

Just some observations from the past week, post election:

Private Sellers on local boards, FB Groups, various boards are trying to unload cases of PMags.

I noticed that even retailers are deeply discounting. Midway has D60 Mags for 7% over cost.

Lots of cheap Uppers and Lowers also being unloaded into the secondary market.

The election was a huge win for us, now and for a generation to protect our gun rights, but this I think will be in the short term very brutal for some retailers. The market has been saturated for awhile, I know the secondary market has been super soft and lots of quality parts have been had at deep discounts. It's a buyers market. Then people stocked up for the post election shortage/panic, which of course never materialized.

I think Black Friday is going to be a blood bath for the bottom line and some people are going to go out of business.

[rxer311]

I think you may be right. Quality outfits like Rainier Arms, BCM, Primary Arms, etc will probably make it through, but a lot of the fly by night operations like Super Special Delta Midnight Black Ops Tactical will probably not survive.

[GOST]

Probably true, local shops have VP9's for $499.

[alamo5000]

I agree with you 110% on this.

I am seeing some manufacturers go to a 'run' system... make a run of whatever wigit they make... let that sell out.... then make a run of something else... let that sell out.... so they aren't sitting on a bunch of stock that they can't move.

I was thinking about this subject the other day actually, although I have little to no knowledge of the specifics of the gun industry.

For your generic AR parts I think it's a good time to stock up on stuff because before long they will start limiting production on things. If they do however pass the Hearing Protection Act (I know, I know) then that segment is about to blow up if that ever happened.

[alamo5000]

I think you may be right. Quality outfits like Rainier Arms, BCM, Primary Arms, etc will probably make it through, but a lot of the fly by night operations like Super Special Delta Midnight Black Ops Tactical will probably not survive.

I think the ones that focus on generic stuff are going to fall on hard times. The ones that focus on quality, good marketing, customer relations, reputation, good roll marks, aesthetics, etc etc will do ok.

[UWone77]

People won't stay in business long making less than 20% margin, which I see a lot of lately online.

Arfcom is gutted with magazines, uppers, and other AR parts for pennies on the dollar.

Personally, I'm still buying various magazines for certain firearms. State Level magazine restrictions are always on the table for some of us.

[Axlnut]

A couple of points really nailed it.

The manufacturing runs - absolutely. Most places already do this, but they predicate the next run based on reaching a level above 0. That will change, and so will their contract facilities like machine shops. Margins will be gained back by paying less but waiting longer.

The specialty and quality parts houses weathering the storm better, also agree. This bodes well for me with my contract design work and licensed parts. Now is not the time to make another lower or upper just like the rest.

Let me put it bluntly.. this is going to be a Barbie market. It's time to drive focus to the next "upgrade" parts for the existing guns in consumer hands. Many of these parts will be upgrades of more of a cosmetic nature than functional, although the market will likely delude itself claiming how the new safety, charging handle, muzzle brake, etc, are "better." That's fine, but generally it's marketing. Want to survive? Just make it cooler and don't sacrifice functionality.

[fledge]

I hate to see the market bottom out. I also know competition drives innovation. The subgun, AR308, AR Large Bore, and AK are getting a lot more attention. I hope we see more development in those areas.

Will ammo prices fall too?

Wish I could pick up 30rd mags.

[UWone77]

About a month prior to the election, I picked this complete ADM Rifle up for about $750 ish. The UIC Mod 2's are usually around $1800 new. Almost like driving a new car off the lot and trading it in right after.

[Axlnut]

About a month prior to the election, I picked this complete ADM Rifle up for about $750 ish. The UIC Mod 2's are usually around $1800 new. Almost like driving a new car off the lot and trading it in right after.

Very nice.

Look at all those accessories ;-)

Fledge, AKs and subguns are going to explode in general, if import bans are lifted, and the HPA passed... Those markets will go nuts, along with their aftermarkets.

[Stickman]

Very nice.

Look at all those accessories ;-)

Fledge, AKs and subguns are going to explode in general, if import bans are lifted, and the HPA passed... Those markets will go nuts, along with their aftermarkets.

I think people are jumping the gun on how fast that legislation is going to happen.

[UWone77]

I think people are jumping the gun on how fast that legislation is going to happen.

If at all. Not sure where people are getting this optimism, maybe it's just me.

But the 1986 Hughes Amendment was brought to you under the Reagan Presidency, along with the 1989 Import Ban from Bush.

I realize people want to party like it's 1933, but I'm going to remain realistic until I see differently.

[Axlnut]

Stick you may be right.

I feel it like it's a big if, but an if we have some control over. We need to bend ears like we do when things are not going our way.

We may have 4-8 years of not having to fight to hold ground, if that is the case we need to fight to gain it.

[Axlnut]

If at all. Not sure where people are getting this optimism, maybe it's just me.

But the 1986 Hughes Amendment was brought to you under the Reagan Presidency, along with the 1989 Import Ban from Bush.

I realize people want to party like it's 1933, but I'm going to remain realistic until I see differently.

The internet changes everything. From the AWB expiration until now we've had more success stopping new bans, regulations, etc. At least on a federal scale.

[UWone77]

The internet changes everything. From the AWB expiration until now we've had more success stopping new bans, regulations, etc. At least on a federal scale.

Don't get me wrong, I want them to repeal it all!

But I'm just trying to be realistic. I know I've probably just been beaten down from years of just trying to maintain our current rights, but even thought the Republicans will control the Presidency, House, and Senate, Importation Bans will not be high on their list of things to do. It will also not be shed in a favorable light in the mainstream media and on social media. Republican legislators maybe PRO 2A, but will they actually care about Importation Bans? Safe Hearing Acts? I can just see those used against them during a reelection and suddenly we don't control the House or Senate anymore. This is exactly what happened to the Democrats in 2009. They had almost 2 years of Liberal Agendas pushed through with Obama, and they were voted out.